Buying a new computer or printer these days is getting more … challenging. Semiconductor chips are built into just about everything. In fact, in early September, we had a customer who needed more RAM in her machine. With Chris’ help, the order was placed with Crucial, the retail division of Micron Technologies. But, because of the chip shortage, they kept getting emails saying the order was delayed, then delayed again, and again. When they called to find out what to do, Chris urged them to sit tight. Sure, we could get the RAM from another company, but they’d likely have delays as well, and the quality wouldn’t be as good as Crucial. Boy, I really wish we were talking about a potato chip shortage…

(Many of our readers don’t know what semiconductor chips are or what they do.  From IQS: “A semiconductor is a physical substance designed to manage and control the flow of current in electronic devices and equipment.”  If you’re up to more reading, here are a couple of links: How is RAM made?, ” What is a Semiconductor?)

In case you’ve never seen one, here is a photo of a motherboard (Apple calls theirs a logic board) from an old Dell computer. I’ve noted the location of some of the many chips. Note that this motherboard is 15 or 20 years old and everything is MUCH smaller now.

The big question is “Why do I care that there is a chip shortage?”, i.e. WIIFM?

Some of the common items that depend on semiconductor chips include computers, smartphones, gaming machines, cars and trucks, TVs, radios, and even washing machines, refrigerators, and electric toothbrushes. (There is already a serious backlog with monitors. We’re seeing delivery delays of 2 or more months!) Your local phone company and electric utility depend on chips to provide reliable service. Just getting this blog onto the interwebs takes chips. If the supply chain issue doesn’t get solved, it could be a very serious problem.

Why is there a semiconductor chip shortage right now?

It starts with the transportation supply chain. As I write this, it’s mid-November 2021. I keep reading about shipping ports in the US and throughout the world that have huge backlogs with dozens of container ships anchored off the coast.

Sallie Hopper‘s friend Kana took this picture of her son Koji 13 miles south of Long Beach Harbor, CA. This isn’t even the end of the line. Talk about bumper-to-bumper traffic!

These ships can’t unload until there is an available berth in the port and qualified people to unload and distribute each container. What is causing the chip shortage? It was like a perfect storm.

Covid

• First, Covid limitations were put on employers throughout the US (and the world), closing facilities and/or restricting employee hours.
• Then, because so many people were newly working from home, there was a huge uptick in ordering office equipment. This wasn’t on anyone’s forecasting list. Thousands of computers, monitors, video cameras, and printers were ordered and delivered within a very short period of time.
• At about the same time people started getting sick with Covid and greatly reduced the number of qualified employees that could manufacture chips. This also limited people who are qualified to move shipping containers, drive trucks, and load cargo onto trucks or ships, or trains.
• A resurgence of Covid in Asia shut down ports in mid-summer 2021. That has added to the shipping backlog throughout the world.

Ever Given

• And then the Saga of the Ever Given. A container ship blocked the Suez Canal for nearly a week in March, 2021. This caused a backlog of more than 800 ships and all their cargo waiting to get through. According to CNBC: “In 2020, more than 50 ships per day on average passed through the 120-mile long waterway, accounting for around 12% of global trade.” They interviewed Douglas Kent, EVP at the Association for Supply Chain Management. He noted that: “It’s definitely going to continue to backlog ports and other delivery mechanisms as a result, and then, of course, the chaos that disrupts thereafter.”  Image from Wikipedia:

Trucking Industry

• Also, there has already been a shortage of truck drivers for years. Seriously, who wants to drive day and night in all kinds of weather, with little mini-Coopers that you can’t see who cut you off? The answer is fewer and fewer people. In response, the entire trucking industry has raised its pay scale and added more benefits for drivers. That has helped, but not enough. Still, most truckers are paid by the mile, not by time. Sitting around waiting for containers to be moved from the ship is unpaid, but still on-duty time. In the past year, the situation has gotten more dire, with people staying home and ordering a plethora of items online. (This is another reason for the push towards autonomous vehicles.) Even the NYTimes says the trucking industry is the “biggest kink in the supply chain.”
• California may be having more transportation issues than other states because of its strict emissions standards. Older trucks, available for loading, are not allowed to enter the state.
• And let’s not forget about the weather. The interstate highways have already had several sections closed in October 2021 because of weather. This image from The Morning Call shows a Pennsylvania highway shut down during a snowstorm:
  

  

Semiconductor Industry

• Why is there ever a shortage of anything? Supply. Demand. Inaccurate forecasting. Loss of control over basic materials.
• For semiconductor chips, just like the trucking industry “even before the pandemic, demand for them exceeded supply. Earlier this year, economist Rory Green called semiconductors “the new oil,”  and says “Taiwan and South Korea are the “new OPEC”: supply, demand and bottlenecks to global growth will revolve around Taiwan and SK chip production. They will not hold effective monopoly power over production forever, but their technology lead, R&D spending and capex plans preclude any change to the duopoly in at least the next five years.”
• And Popular Science notes that “while these chips were an American invention, the number of US manufacturers currently creating them has declined severely. In 1990, 37 percent of chips were made in America, says James Lewis, senior vice president and director of CSIS’s Strategic Technologies Program. By 2020, that number was only 12 percent.” Combine that with global transportation issues, and you can see where we’ve run into trouble.

When will the computer chip shortage end?

I’ve been hearing a lot about the silicon chip shortage all year and actively reading the news since September. Here’s what some of the experts are saying:

Fall 2021 Predictions:

• 10/28/2021 – Arstechnica: “Earlier this year, the chip shortage seemed like it might ease sometime in 2022. Now, that forecast appears to have been optimistic. “The shortages are going to continue indefinitely,” Brandon Kulik, head of Deloitte’s semiconductor industry practice, told Ars. “Maybe that doesn’t mean 10 years, but certainly we’re not talking about quarters. We’re talking about years.”
• 10/15/2021 – “The global chip shortage could persist for another two to three years before ending, the President of Hisense, one of China’s largest TV and household goods makers, told CNBC.” Sharp, Toshiba, and Hitachi are among the brands sold by Hisense.
• 9/27/2021 – CNBC: “The global chip shortage will become less severe in the second half of 2022, AMD CEO Lisa Su said on Monday, though she warned that the first half of the year will be “likely tight.””
• 11/2/2021 – Reuters: The AMD chip shortage seems to be almost non-existent. “Our supply chain team has worked to make sure that we have months and years of forecast ahead into our supply chain,” Chief Technology Officer Mark Papermaster said on the sidelines of the Web Summit conference in Lisbon, Portugal. “Everybody has had to increase their focus on the supply chain but we did so from the very beginning of the pandemic.”

Summer 2021 Predictions:

• 7/23/2021 – From CNN: “While I expect shortages to bottom out in the second half [of the year], it will take another one to two years before the industry is able to completely catch up with demand,” Intel CEO Patrick Gelsinger told analysts on Thursday.”
• 7/29/2021 – Reuters:  “The global chip shortage that is hindering production forecasts of giant companies like Apple Inc (AAPL.O)and Volkswagen AG (VOWG_p.DE) is here to stay until the first half of 2023, the chief executive of STMicroelectronics (STM.BN) said on Thursday.”

Bottom line:

It looks like the chip shortage may start to ease somewhat in 2023, but we’ll still see supply issues for the next 2-5 years.

Conclusion: What should I do?

First, take care of the electronic equipment you have that may be using chips. Call your appliance person and have them give your washers, furnace, and other appliances a good once over. Make sure you do regular oil changes and tune-ups for your car or truck. And, yes, make sure your Mac or PC gets an annual tune-up. Chris can tell you what you can do to lengthen its life.

If you do need to purchase something right away, be prepared to:

• Choose a different option
• Wait longer than normal, in some cases several months longer. (We have a customer who needs a specialized motherboard for their security gate. The part comes from China. Current estimated delivery date is 30+ weeks from now!)
• Pay more than you would have in 2019 or 2020

If you can, wait until 2023 or later to purchase a new car, household appliance, or computer. This way, you should be able to get exactly what you want.

Information About Geek For Hire, Inc.

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Chris Eddy of Geek For Hire, Inc. has provided computer service to families and small businesses with Mac’s and PCs for the past eighteen years. He’s the geek for you! Angie’s List and the BBB rate Geek For Hire very highly.  You can find more on our website, or give us a call at 303-618-0154. Geek For Hire, Inc. provides onsite service (Tier 3 support) to the Denver / Boulder / Front Range area and remote service throughout North America.

Here’s a link to our Covid19 Policy.

We’ve been using Amazon Prime for the past few years.  We like the free and fast shipping.  With Prime, we have access to online streaming too. Prime is usually $119/year, but you can get a free 30-day trial by clicking on this link: Try Amazon Prime 30-Day Free Trial. As an Amazon Associate, we earn from qualifying purchases.

More Tips Here:

• Are VPNs worth it? More here.
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• We have seen a lot of Facebook hacking lately. Here’s what you should do ahead of time to keep your account safe.
• And here are the 10 Password Mistakes you don’t want to make!

In the past few weeks, we’ve had more than a few people ask us what to look for when buying a computer. Is it pent-up demand after a year of hanging out at home? Was it for Back-to-School? Is it pre-planning for Black Friday? Is it the regular paycheck again and can finally afford to replace that old Windows 7 machine? (If you’re looking for a new MacBook or iMac, check out this article for Chris’ recommendations.) Whatever your motivation, if you’ve been wondering what to look for in a computer, here’s our advice.

Computer Purchasing Tips:

Laptop or Desktop:

We live out west where “fire season” is almost the same time as “hurricane season”. It starts in early summer and lasts through October or November. Because we never know when we’ll be evacuated, we lean towards laptops. We’ve found that there is not a whole lot of performance difference between desktops and laptops anymore. When someone says “Your next computer should be a desktop”, we respectfully disagree.

If you do prefer to have a computer on your desk, get an external monitor or two, a docking station, a wireless keyboard, and a mouse. With this setup, it will work just like a desktop.

Here’s my setup with the laptop and two monitors.

Because laptops are more portable by design, if you do get evacuated, you can just toss the computer in your laundry basket and head out to your vehicle. (More advice on how to keep your tech safe during fire season.)

Do you want a Touchscreen: 

We find that touchscreens add extra complexity and end up making the total cost of the machine more expensive without useful functionality. Unless you have a real need for a touchscreen, we’d advise against getting one. (My current laptop has a touch screen which I almost never use. Partly because the lid is always closed!)

How much Storage:

Choose a Solid-State Drive over a traditional Hard Drive. SSDs are much faster than a physical hard drive. In addition, they are more robust because they have no moving parts. Check to see how much storage you are currently using, then double it or more for your new machine. You’re not going to take fewer photos in the future! And, as technology changes, those photos will be larger. I have a 2 TB SSD which seems to work well for me. (More information about storage, SSDs, and hard drives.)

How much RAM:

I always get confused between “memory” and “storage”. RAM is memory. When you’re buying a computer, get at least 8 gigs of RAM as two separate sticks, not one. If you’re the type of person who opens a bunch of windows and tabs, you’ll want to bump that up to 16 gig or more of RAM.

What kind of Keyboard:

Do you want a 10-key Keyboard? (A 10-key is the number pad generally to the right of the rest of the keys. Accountants and anyone who works with numbers use them.) I once got a USB-connected 10-key accessory because my computer didn’t have one. It worked, but it was cumbersome. If you think you’ll want one, make sure it is a part of your ordering process. Do you ever work in the dark? Think about getting a backlit keyboard. Do you like the clickity-clack of an old-style typewriter?

The size of the keyboard can also dictate the size of the laptop. If you’re an expert typist, a smaller keyboard may work well for you. If you tend to make a lot of typos, look at a larger machine.

Do you want a Video Camera:

If you do a lot of Zooming, Facetiming, or Google Meeting, think about getting a video camera. There is not as much of an ordering backlog as there was six months ago. Most laptops come with a camera already built-in. A higher quality external camera can be added later.

What size Battery:

One of the things to look for in a computer is battery life. Get the largest battery offered for the machine so you can continue working a long time without being plugged in.

Also, order a second power brick. Keep one on your desk and one in your laptop case to simplify travel. (And, if one of them stops working, you’ll already have a spare.)

How long of a Warranty:

When you’re buying a personal computer, don’t forget about the warranty. We’ve noticed that computers tend to have issues with their component parts at about the 3 ½ to 3 ¾ year mark. Get at least a four-year warranty from the manufacturer. Don’t get a warranty from the store. Sometimes, when you buy a new computer at a store, like Best Buy or Costco, they won’t offer a manufacturer warranty. In that case, get the longest warranty the store offers.

Against our advice, a recent customer got a one-year standard warranty on an inexpensive machine. They had a lot of questions that the warranty covered, but if they spill coffee on the laptop next year, they’re out of luck.

Read the fine print! Not all warranties provide coverage on liquid spills or falling off the rooftop of your car while driving. Don’t sign until you ask a ton of questions!

What kind of Processor:

The Core I3 processor is pretty slow. Chris recommends the Intel Core I5 or I7. (The I9 is also available. It’s smokin’ fast and a lot more expensive.) There’s more info about the Intel processors here. We’ve found that in most cases the AMD processors tend to perform poorly.

How much will a new computer cost:

Expect to spend at least $1000 on a machine that will still serve you and that you’ll still like in three years. Like most things, computers are a “you get what you pay for” kind of thing. There are “cheap” machines which are, unfortunately, sold for more than they are worth. Do your research and let us know if you need help. Also, most of the major manufacturers (Dell, Lenovo, HP) have payment plans. Ask! If you purchase a new computer for less than $800, expect to be disappointed.

What else do I need to know?

How long do laptops last?

Computers are still pretty robust. Expect to get four to ten years out of a good laptop or desktop, with more and more problems occurring after the four year mark. (FYI, we have a 2008 iMac that is still going strong.)

I really don’t know what to look for when buying a computer!

Need help? One of the services we provide is to work with different manufacturers to get the best machine possible for our customers. Chris will listen to your requirements and design a machine that will work for you. Because of our long association with Dell, Chris is generally able to get a 30-50% discount on those machines. He gets less of a discount with other manufacturers. We have a one-hour design fee for this service. If you’ve already done some selecting, schedule a consultation with us. Chris can review the design and make suggestions before you actually purchase the machine.

Information About Geek For Hire, Inc.

I’ve created a Free Report to protect you from “phishing” scams. Click here to receive it!

Chris Eddy of Geek For Hire, Inc. has provided computer service to families and small businesses with Mac’s and PCs for the past eighteen years. Angie’s List and the BBB rate Geek For Hire very highly.  You can find more on our website, or give us a call at 303-618-0154. Geek For Hire, Inc. provides onsite service (Tier 3 support) to the Denver / Boulder / Front Range area and remote service throughout North America.

Here’s a link to our Covid19 Policy.

We’ve been using Amazon Prime for the past few years.  We like the free and fast shipping.  With Prime, we have access to online streaming too. Prime is usually $119/year, but you can get a free 30-day trial by clicking on this link: Try Amazon Prime 30-Day Free Trial. As an Amazon Associate, we earn from qualifying purchases.

More Tips Here:

• Are VPNs worth it? More here.
• Are you interested in learning more about Extreme Privacy?
• We have seen a lot of Facebook hacking lately. Here’s what you should do ahead of time to keep your account safe.
• And here are the 10 Password Mistakes you don’t want to make!